This document dives in on the state of Florida pointing out relevant data, voter trends and relevant recent events.
Other Sources Not Included:
Florida isn’t just a toss-up at this point. Florida is a conundrum. Republicans eked out their wins in the mid-term. The 2018 US Senate race cost $181 million. As I’ve mentioned before, there won’t be a Senate or governor’s race in 2020. That means there won’t be a notable big-ticket candidate going around daily building up momentum for either side.
Republicans control the governor’s office, which will help a lot on the ground. They also have a one-seat edge in the congressional seats. All but two seats are relatively safe. Those both flipped to the Democrats in ’18 and only one of them came within two-percentage points.
Trump saw big gains in 2016 and his coattails appear to be long enough to help two statewide officials get elected, barely. Democrats hold a lead in voter registration over Republicans. But, voters who do not have a party identification is increasing, as are those who identify with the two major parties.
2020 will likely come down to those voters who don’t identify with either party, but are more upset with a certain one. The state legislature should focus on tending to the needs of the people while finding a way to blame the feds for the local problems. This message is likely to work for both parties.